Exit Poll Early Thoughts.

Exit Poll first thoughts.

1) The exit poll has been very accurate over the last three elections, so chances are this one is pretty accurate too.

2) Looks like the SNP have lost a substantial number of seats.

3) It should not be assumed that those seats have been lost to the Tories. The “Corbyn effect” seems to have had a large influence here as well. (Labour are the big winners on the night with +34 seats)

4) 34 SNP seats is still a definite majority of Scottish seats, and likely more or less double what either of the unionist parties will get. We still have a mandate (not that it was in question) for ScotRef.

5) If the poll holds true, and seat numbers are pretty accurate, it kind of makes sense. Think about it. SNP with 56 seats? That was always a highly inflated number. That is 94.92%. There was never any way that 94.92% of the electorate were pro-indy SNP supporters. It was an aberration of the UK’s antiquated first past the post electoral system, and Labour supporters voting SNP in disgust at the state of their own party. Corbyn has won large numbers of them back (although they are misguided, because the Scottish branch are still blairite, red tory twats), and combined with the Tory “ultra-unionist” stance, the numbers have returned to what is more realistic.

6) Again, 34 is still a clear majority. Well over 50%. No one can argue that a pro-indy party doesn’t still hold sway in Scotland.

7) May could well have to resign. She called this election and it has cost them.

8) Ok, reaching here, but if the numbers are correct, is there an opportunity here for a Lab/SNP/Lib/Grn/PC alliance/coalition to lock the Tory wankers out of power? Unlikely I know, but one is allowed to dream.

9) If (8) does happen, will I lose the hundred quid I just won at the bookies for correctly predicting this result?

10) If (8) and (9) do happen, would I care? (Answer = god no.)

11) Although exit polls have proved highly accurate over the last five elections or so, if there is much variation in the actual numbers, it may be amplified in Scotland due to the small sample size.

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2 thoughts on “Exit Poll Early Thoughts.

  1. My worry is that several of the Tory potential MP’s are currently MSP’s. If they win, this will create Holyrood by-elections. How will those go?

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  2. That’s a good point grannymaggie. I hadn’t thought of that. To be honest I don’t know off the top of my head, because I don’t know which MSPs are involved, where they represent, or even if they were elected or, more likely, list MSPs. If they are list MSPs, I would have thought there’d be a fair chance of them going to the SNP actually, but after this election, nothing would surprise me.

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